2026 - 2027 Winter Outlook

2025–2026 CONNECTICUT WINTER OUTLOOK. Snowfall totals and forecast temperature range.

It’s that time of year! After digging through historical data and looking at some of the larger-scale patterns, here’s my early outlook for the upcoming Connecticut winter.

One of the biggest factors I’m watching is El Niño. Historically, strong El Niño winters tend to favor a stronger southern storm track, while the Northeast often leans milder overall. But Connecticut’s response to El Niño has been anything but consistent. Some of the strongest El Niño winters on record, 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16 show just how differently these winters can play out. And remember: warmer than average does NOT mean snowless.

We’ve seen winters finish well above normal temperature wise and still produce plenty of snow. The 2014–15 winter, for example, was the 4th snowiest winter along the Connecticut shoreline, with nearly 60 inches of snow. Inland Connecticut also finished with around 59 inches.

For perspective, average seasonal snowfall is roughly:

Shoreline (BDR): 28 inches Inland (BDL): 43 inches

Now, putting El Niño aside for a moment…When it comes to long-range forecasting, I also like looking at historical trends and similar years. Weather is ultimately a series of patterns, and sometimes the past can give us clues about what may lie ahead.

SHORELINE

The years I found most comparable to 2026 based on temperature and precipitation trends were: 1952, 1973, 2006 and 2011. Three of those four years produced below normal snowfall, while all four finished warmer than average for the winter.

INLAND

The inland data told a similar story. The five years I found most comparable were: 1952, 1974, 1976, 1987 and 1993. Two of those five produced below normal snowfall, but once again, all five finished warmer than average.

But here’s something that really caught my attention. Several of those historical years featured a snowy March. And, of course, 1993 brought the famous March Superstorm. Does that mean we’re getting a huge March storm this winter? Absolutely not. But it’s an interesting signal when looking through the historical data.

So after putting everything together, here’s where I’m leaning:

SNOWFALL

Near to slightly below average snowfall across Connecticut. That said, seasonal snowfall can be incredibly deceptive. An active southern storm track means it may only take one or two well timed coastal storms to dramatically change the numbers. Remember, average snowfall is approximately 28 inches along the shoreline and 43 inches inland.

TEMPERATURES

I’m leaning warmer than average overall. But warmer than average does NOT mean every day will be warm. We will still have cold stretches, Arctic shots and opportunities for snow. After all…it’s still winter!

BOTTOM LINE

I don’t see this being a wall-to-wall winter where the cold and snow lock in for months at a time. Instead, I’m expecting plenty of ups and downs with milder stretches interrupted by periods of colder weather, along with opportunities for East Coast storms. And with temperatures potentially marginal at times, some of those systems could bring the classic Connecticut combination of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. Could one or two bigger storms completely change the complexion of the winter? Absolutely. That’s what makes forecasting winter in New England so much fun. As always, seasonal forecasting is about identifying trends and patterns, not predicting individual storms months in advance. There will be plenty of time for that!

We’ll see how it plays out!

Thanks for reading!

Meteorologist Kevin Arnone

And If you're looking for a detailed private forecast this winter for your Company. Look no further than right here!